http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080827/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather
By JONATHAN M. KATZ, Associated Press Writer
By JONATHAN M. KATZ, Associated Press Writer
Gustav swirled toward Cuba on Wednesday after triggering flooding and landslides that killed at least 11 people in the Caribbean. Its track pointed toward the U.S. Gulf coast, including Louisana where Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc three years ago.
Oil prices continued to rise because of the threat to offshore rigs responsible for a quarter of U.S. crude production.
"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure where it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm. At that point, we're expecting it to be a Category 3 hurricane."
The tentative forecast track pointed Wednesday toward Louisiana and Mississippi, which took the brunt of Hurricane Katrina three years ago Friday. But the average error in five-day forecasts is about 310 miles (500 kms) in either direction, meaning the likeliest targets could be anywhere from south Texas to the Florida panhandle.
The threat to gulf oil operations already forced Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other oil companies to trigger evacuation plans. Oil prices jumped above US$119 a barrel in Wednesday trading, and one industry analyst said U.S. gas prices could rise 10 cents by this weekend as a result.
Gustav is raising concern particularly because there are few surrounding wind currents capable of shearing off the top of the storm and diminishing its power, the hurricane center said. "Combined with the deep warm waters, rapid intensification could occur in a couple of days."
New Orleans officials began planning for possible evacuations, and urged people who might need help in the event of an evacuation to call an emergency information number. Mississippi Emergency Management Director Mike Womack advised people along the coast to prepare.
Gustav diminished to a tropical storm over Haiti but was still dumping heavy rains as it moved west-northwest at 5 mph (7 kph), and forecasters said it could regain hurricane strength as it passes between Cuba and Jamaica. Top sustained winds were near 60 mph (95 kph), with higher gusts, and the storm was centered about 110 miles (180 kms) west of Port-au-Prince and 125 miles (200 kms) southeast of Guantanamo.
A hurricane warning was in effect for parts of Cuba including the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay. "My instinct is it will be a really wet night," base spokesman Bruce Lloyd said Wednesday morning.
Gustav's toll on the island of Hispaniola was becoming clearer Wednesday. At least three people were confirmed dead in Haiti, including a young girl swept off a bridge by flood waters and a man killed in a landslide, said civil protection director Marie Alta. Eight people, including two infants, died in a landslide in the Dominican Republic.
"They were all members of a family that had taken shelter since Tropical Storm Fay and left to go home because they thought the danger had passed," said Luis Luna Paulino, director of the civil defense agency.
Southern Haiti is prone to devastating floods because its mountainous terrain has been stripped of trees for farming.
As Gustav roared ashore Tuesday afternoon near the southern Haitian city of Jacmel with top winds near 90 mph (145 kph), palm trees toppled and rising waters reached the city's Victorian wooden buildings.
Flooding also was reported in coastal Les Cayes, where U.N. peacekeepers used tear gas to disperse demonstrators throwing rocks in a protest against rising food prices in the Western Hemisphere's poorest country. Haiti has seen deadly food riots, and could be in for more if Gustav seriously damages crops.
If the storm continues on its path, it could drive up U.S. gasoline prices by 10 cents a gallon ahead of Labor Day weekend, predicted James Cordier, president of Tampa, Florida-based Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.
Oil prices continued to rise because of the threat to offshore rigs responsible for a quarter of U.S. crude production.
"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure where it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm. At that point, we're expecting it to be a Category 3 hurricane."
The tentative forecast track pointed Wednesday toward Louisiana and Mississippi, which took the brunt of Hurricane Katrina three years ago Friday. But the average error in five-day forecasts is about 310 miles (500 kms) in either direction, meaning the likeliest targets could be anywhere from south Texas to the Florida panhandle.
The threat to gulf oil operations already forced Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other oil companies to trigger evacuation plans. Oil prices jumped above US$119 a barrel in Wednesday trading, and one industry analyst said U.S. gas prices could rise 10 cents by this weekend as a result.
Gustav is raising concern particularly because there are few surrounding wind currents capable of shearing off the top of the storm and diminishing its power, the hurricane center said. "Combined with the deep warm waters, rapid intensification could occur in a couple of days."
New Orleans officials began planning for possible evacuations, and urged people who might need help in the event of an evacuation to call an emergency information number. Mississippi Emergency Management Director Mike Womack advised people along the coast to prepare.
Gustav diminished to a tropical storm over Haiti but was still dumping heavy rains as it moved west-northwest at 5 mph (7 kph), and forecasters said it could regain hurricane strength as it passes between Cuba and Jamaica. Top sustained winds were near 60 mph (95 kph), with higher gusts, and the storm was centered about 110 miles (180 kms) west of Port-au-Prince and 125 miles (200 kms) southeast of Guantanamo.
A hurricane warning was in effect for parts of Cuba including the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay. "My instinct is it will be a really wet night," base spokesman Bruce Lloyd said Wednesday morning.
Gustav's toll on the island of Hispaniola was becoming clearer Wednesday. At least three people were confirmed dead in Haiti, including a young girl swept off a bridge by flood waters and a man killed in a landslide, said civil protection director Marie Alta. Eight people, including two infants, died in a landslide in the Dominican Republic.
"They were all members of a family that had taken shelter since Tropical Storm Fay and left to go home because they thought the danger had passed," said Luis Luna Paulino, director of the civil defense agency.
Southern Haiti is prone to devastating floods because its mountainous terrain has been stripped of trees for farming.
As Gustav roared ashore Tuesday afternoon near the southern Haitian city of Jacmel with top winds near 90 mph (145 kph), palm trees toppled and rising waters reached the city's Victorian wooden buildings.
Flooding also was reported in coastal Les Cayes, where U.N. peacekeepers used tear gas to disperse demonstrators throwing rocks in a protest against rising food prices in the Western Hemisphere's poorest country. Haiti has seen deadly food riots, and could be in for more if Gustav seriously damages crops.
If the storm continues on its path, it could drive up U.S. gasoline prices by 10 cents a gallon ahead of Labor Day weekend, predicted James Cordier, president of Tampa, Florida-based Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.
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